Future impact of the New Crown pneumonia epidemic on technology
The new pneumonia epidemic may accelerate the adoption of robotics and other automation technologies. Prior to the New Coronavirus epidemic, a study by the Oxford Economics Institute in the United Kingdom had predicted that 20 million manufacturing jobs worldwide would be replaced by robots by 2030. The National Bureau of Economic Research and the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research found that the replacement of labor by automation peaks during economic downturns, which have the greatest impact on low-skilled jobs.
During the Newcastle pneumonia epidemic, robots have been used extensively in delivery services, disinfecting public places and assisting medical workers in order to mitigate the spread of the virus. In the healthcare industry, the outbreak is accelerating the integration of robots into the daily operations of hospitals, driving the development of applications that help diagnose diseases, screenings, and patient care more effectively. For example, Chinese researchers are designing new robots that can be used to remotely collect blood samples and perform throat swabs.
In the grocery industry, robots are rapidly being used to clean floors and shelves and provide a “no-touch” alternative to delivering goods. In retail, companies such as Walmart and Amazon are advancing the use of robotic delivery facilities or micro-distribution centers at a faster pace than before the outbreak in response to the surge in online orders. Ground and airborne robots are playing an important role in crisis management in 21 countries, providing thermal imagery to help identify infected citizens, enforcing quarantine measures and broadcasting public service messages.
Additive manufacturing (3D printing) showed great promise in responding to urgent needs during the Newcastle pneumonia outbreak crisis, which particularly highlighted its value in the healthcare industry. As the healthcare supply chain faces global disruptions and adapts to emerging needs, additive manufacturing has shown great agility in producing essential components such as anatomical structures, ventilators, prosthetics, and personal protective equipment. As the crisis intensifies, researchers and companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are turning to additive manufacturing to address these product shortages. Royal DSM, a Dutch technology company in the medical, nutrition and materials sectors, has launched the UNITE4COVID platform to support 3D printer manufacturers in their joint efforts to address product shortages. The platform was highlighted at the World Economic Forum’s New Crown Pneumonia Outbreak Action Platform. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Veterans Affairs have formed public-private partnerships with additive manufacturing companies to address device shortages, including personal protective equipment. China is also using additive manufacturing for mass production of shortage products.
3,Internet of Things
The rapid proliferation of infrastructure, including home-based offices, VPN networks and collaboration tools such as video conferencing, has led to increased digitization during the New Crown pneumonia outbreak. However, the Internet of Things (IoT) itself was largely unaffected by the Newcastle pneumonia epidemic. The IoT includes 1 trillion or more connected devices in the world today, covering a wide range of industries and representing the convergence between the physical and digital worlds. While the Newcastle pneumonia epidemic has shifted many social and business activities online, IoT devices are still running and they are sending out no more data than they did before the epidemic (which is already a strong testament to how fast IoT is being used).
However, the long-term impact of the New Crest pneumonia outbreak on IoT analytics is still evident, especially in the health care sector. Businesses and governments that relied increasingly on the Internet, IoT analytics, and digital devices during the New Crown crisis will remain highly digital even after the epidemic has passed. For example, demand for digital portals in interactive healthcare continues to grow, with some online services now claiming a 500% to 600% increase in telehealth use. Demand for telemedicine and virtual consultations among mid- to high-end consumers is unlikely to return to the levels of the low-tech past, and they will increase their reliance on the Internet of Things. In addition, similar to the way IoT has been applied to detect emerging public health crises such as the Zika virus (Zika) and the avian influenza virus (H1N1), IoT applications have been applied directly to the fight against the new coronavirus, leveraging global healthcare systems and surveillance tools (including rapidly evolving consumer wearables) to analyze and share real-time data to track the spread of the virus.
Artificial intelligence is expected to reach $15.7 trillion in the world economy by 2030. Evidence suggests that the New Coronavirus pandemic is accelerating the overall pace of innovation in this area. The New Crown pandemic will accelerate the adoption of AI in healthcare, and AI may be entering healthcare faster than any other field. Artificial intelligence has been combined with robotics to create autonomous systems capable of interacting with the physical world and is being used to predict the spread of viruses, monitor infection rates, perform contact tracking, and inform decisions about policies related to economic restart. The new crown epidemic has also accelerated the widespread use of digital aids such as chatbots: healthcare applications on the websites of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); PayPal, a phone banking service offered by the banking and e-commerce sectors (which can handle 65 percent of customer inquiries); and the call center services industry, among others. Researchers are also using machine learning to identify virus types so that diseases can be detected early.
At the same time, the Newcastle pneumonia outbreak highlights the already existing challenge of artificial intelligence, namely that it will be decades before society can use independently functioning automated systems. Evidence of unexplained changes in human behavior caused by the outbreak, such as panic buying of toilet paper and a spike in gardening equipment purchases, have puzzled AI devices. This may prompt developers to train future AI devices to understand past crisis events, such as the Great Depression and the global financial crisis, in order to better predict human behavior. The dramatic swings in the stock market, especially during March-April, may be due in large part to AI algorithms overreacting because the strategic environment changed so dramatically that they were unable to mine any data from previous environmental data.
The New Crest Pneumonia outbreak may have accelerated the biotechnology century. Biotechnology is at the forefront of the response to the New Crest Pneumonia epidemic, and it is helping to enable rapid advances and the development of new approaches in diagnosis, treatment, and vaccine development. The global health crisis just goes to show that achieving leadership in biotechnology is critical, and that biotechnology can have a significant impact on economic competitiveness and national security. Converging technologies like artificial intelligence and cloud computing are also further accelerating the development of the biotechnology field. In fact, prior to the New Crown pneumonia epidemic, there were predictions that global synthetic biology companies would reach a market value of nearly $20 billion by 2022. During the New Crown epidemic, a number of biotech companies working on vaccines exceeded all expectations in terms of market capitalization. Synthetic biology companies are competing to develop neo-crown vaccines and other vaccines and drugs that are effective against current and future pathogens. Bioengineering tools have accelerated the pace of vaccine development and have helped some companies move to the human testing stage at a faster pace than traditional methods.
Economic impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak
The Newcastle pneumonia epidemic has had an unprecedentedly large impact on the world economy, one that is more widespread and creates more uncertainty about the future than the global financial crisis. The World Bank’s June 2020 Global Economic Outlook paints a bleak picture of the current and future world economy, predicting a 5.2% decline in the global economy, with emerging markets, developing economies and developed economies all severely affected. This is the first time in at least 60 years that all countries will experience a recession at the same time, bringing about a widespread and deep global economic crisis. Economists around the world and central banks are predicting a slow recovery as countries take special measures to stimulate and stabilize their economies. Gita Gopinath, economic adviser and director of research at the International Monetary Fund, said it was “the worst recession since the Great Depression, much worse than the global financial crisis.
Despite the bleak outlook, the demise of globalization that has been predicted for decades has not happened. Although global connectivity and trade have been hit hard during the new crown epidemic, globalization is bound to continue and will rebound more quickly than expected. The more important question is how will globalization change and what will be the path to recovery? Foreign trade flows have fallen sharply as many countries have closed their doors and raised tariffs to protect their domestic markets.
Perhaps the most important impact of the New Crown Pneumonia epidemic is the strengthening of national interests, which have replaced free market incentives in guiding the process of market supply chain formation. In terms of restricting the free flow of supplies of goods, the New Crown pneumonia epidemic may have constituted the largest international market shock since the Arab oil embargo of 1973, restricting the free flow of medical supplies such as respirators and personal protective equipment. Meanwhile, ongoing trade and export restrictions between the U.S. and China have led to a tense supply chain dynamic. Persistent national restrictions and government incentives to stimulate domestic growth in key industries may lead to fragmentation and regionalization of supply chains, resulting in shifting production locations in key markets and an increasing divergence between Asian and non-Asian markets.
Emerging market economies could also suffer far-reaching and lasting damage. Key economic drivers in emerging markets such as oil and tourism have been severely and adversely affected by the New Crown Pneumonia outbreak. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, accounts for 90 percent of exports and two-thirds of government revenues, with two-thirds of government revenues going to debt service. The IMF found that public debt increased to more than 122 percent of GDP in developed economies, 62 percent of GDP in emerging markets, and 47 percent of GDP in developing countries. 15 African countries will spend more on debt than they have to fight the New Crest Pneumonia epidemic, and countries such as Lebanon have stopped payments on their outstanding Eurobonds. Argentina is facing its ninth default to stop debt payments. These economic crises could lead to greater political instability in these countries or the region as a whole in the coming years. The rest of the world will soon face similar debt challenges as credit markets dry up and refinancing capacity is inadequate. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has almost entirely dried up. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development forecasts that FDI flows will fall by as much as 40 percent this year, could fall by a further 5 to 10 percent next year, and are unlikely to begin to recover by 2021.
The global labor market is more chaotic. The International Monetary Fund estimates that 300 million full-time jobs could be lost globally in the second quarter of 2020. Job losses due to the new crown pneumonia outbreak are most severe in the retail, service and hospitality sectors, where most low-income jobs are located.
Those closest to the poverty line suffer the worst economic impact, as jobs in the “real economy” (i.e., providing tangible goods and basic services) are lost due to the quarantine and embargo. In the long run, these people will face great difficulty in recovering from the epidemic.
4,Digitization of transactions
The most significant economic restructuring under the impact of the Newcastle pneumonia epidemic has been the rapid shift to online commerce. People are increasingly relying on cashless transactions, and additionally interest in cryptocurrencies is surging. The value of Bitcoin has been soaring since March 15, with Bitcoin prices up 75% by July 8. Thanks to apps like WeChat, the use of digital wallets has surged and the trend from cryptocurrency to digital transactions will continue to be developed and used. bain and Company has adjusted its projections and estimates that 67% of the value of all transactions will be digital by 2025, a 10% increase from projections prior to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
In the face of the challenges of the epidemic, governments, businesses, institutions and individuals will emerge from this crisis stronger. Moreover, the future does not happen as a matter of course, and people’s actions or inactions will affect the future. Especially in this time of great uncertainty, people should consider how to actively design and shape the world we want in order to avoid a repeat of such crises. This research is an ongoing study that will be continually adjusted and revised in response to changing circumstances, seeking to accurately predict the impact on the next 30 years.