Global COVID-19 is spreading and mutant strains are threatening. Experts say that the hope of overcoming this pandemic is probably the large-scale vaccination. Globally, the demand for new crown vaccine is expanding in the global market. Recently, mainstream vaccine R & D and manufacturers in Europe and America handed over their transcripts in the first half of 2021, of which Xinguan vaccine business had a significant impact on the performance in the first half of the year.
|Capital continues to bet on new crown vaccine developers
The share prices of Moderna and biontech have continued to rise for nearly a year, which is eye popping. Over the past year, the shares of the two companies have soared by more than 480% and reached an all-time high. In addition, as a partner of biontech, Pfizer, a pharmaceutical giant, has also broken through this year’s high. Moderna is known as Tesla in the field of biotechnology. “Everyone has to buy,” Jeffrey analysts said of Moderna As of August 17 Beijing time, Moderna reported US $373.86/share, with a total market value of US $150.9 billion. The total market value of biontech also reached US $82.87 billion. According to the data, investment advisers are currently the largest shareholder group of Moderna, and BlackRock, pioneer group and Morgan Stanley are all major investors of Moderna. However, Moderna’s share price has experienced a roller coaster like violent shock recently, which also reflects that the capital market has different views and differences on Star stocks in the field of biotechnology. With the rising share price, investors’ biggest concern is whether Moderna’s valuation has been too high?
Investment fund managers said that although investors previously regarded the vaccine as a “one-time cash injection… Unfortunately, it will indeed be a lasting business”.
|The demand for new crown vaccine continued to expand, and Pfizer and Moderna announced price increases
In a study published on medRxiv, it was observed that after several months of vaccination, the risk of infection with COVID-19 rose sharply. The data show that people who received the second dose of Pfizer / biotech vaccine 5 months and more ago are more likely to detect new crown positive than those who were fully vaccinated within 5 months. American virus expert fudge said that people with low immune function should be given more injections. With the spread of the mutant strain, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on the 12th that it approved some people with low immunity to be vaccinated with the new crown vaccine booster needle. FDA approved the booster injection of Pfizer vaccine and Modena vaccine this time. The routine vaccination regimen of both vaccines is two doses. The FDA said in a statement that some people with low immunity, especially organ transplant recipients, can receive booster shots of the same vaccine at least 28 days after completing two doses of vaccination. According to the data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention in July, the proportion of people with low immunity in American adults is only 2.7%, but it accounts for about 44% of the new crown hospitalized cases of “breakthrough infection”. The implementation of the vaccination strategy is expected to begin in September. In addition to the United States, countries such as Chile, Germany and Israel have also decided to provide booster needles for the elderly or people with weak immune system to deal with the rapidly spreading delta virus variant.
Pfizer and Moderna reinforcing needles approved by FDA
Pfizer, Moderna and other vaccine manufacturers actively support vaccination booster. Pfizer said that since the mutant virus will continue to appear, a third dose of vaccine may be a better choice. Meanwhile, Pfizer disclosed the clinical research data after the third dose of new crown mRNA vaccine bnt162b2: compared with the second dose of vaccine, the neutralizing antibody of the third dose of vaccine against b.1.351 variant increased by 15-21 times, and the neutralizing antibody titer against delta variant increased by more than 5-11 times according to different age groups. Moderna said that the experimental data showed that its vaccine remained 93% effective within 6 months after the second dose of vaccination, and also advocated the necessity of strengthening vaccination. Analysts and medical investors expect Pfizer, biontech and Moderna to make billions of dollars from the new crown vaccine booster, and the annual sales of the market in the next few years may be equal to the $6 billion of influenza vaccine.
Just when the World Health Organization called for the improvement of vaccination rates in poor countries, Pfizer and Moderna announced that the price of their new crown vaccine had increased. It is reported that Pfizer has increased the price of its new crown vaccine by about 25%, while Moderna has increased the price by about 10%. From the performance of Q1 and Q2 this year, the unit price of Moderna new crown vaccine has been raised from an average of $17 / dose to an average of $20.6 / dose.
|Improve the annual performance outlook, who will be the biggest winner of the pandemic?
Recently, Moderna, Pfizer and biontech all raised the sales forecast of new crown vaccine at the financial report press conference. As of July 21, the mRNA vaccine bnt162b2 jointly developed by biontech and Pfizer has supplied more than 1 billion doses to more than 100 countries and regions around the world. Pfizer estimates that revenue from the 3 billion doses of vaccine produced this year has increased from $26 billion to $33.5 billion. Biontech raised the estimated revenue of new crown vaccine in 2021 from € 12.4 billion to € 15.9 billion. The two companies raised the proportion by nearly 30%. Moderna announced that the supply of new crown vaccine in fiscal year 2021 will be 800-1 billion doses. According to the highest sales volume, the annual sales revenue of new crown vaccine is expected to reach US $20.4 billion.
For a long time, the world’s traditional vaccine giants are GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, MSD and Pfizer. Since the new crown pandemic, the application of mRNA technology has made people know the emerging vaccine developers Moderna and biontech. The traditional dominant position in the field of vaccine has been challenged unprecedentedly. With the continuous improvement of mRNA technology, perhaps the position in this field will be reshaped in the future.